Keeping Score

by Irving Snodgrass

      About a year ago, Indonesia began appearing frequently in international news reports for the first time since 1965, the "year of living dangerously." The world again followed events here as, amidst a deepening economic crisis, President Suharto engineered his own reelection: students protested throughout the nation; the military cracked down, violent riots erupted in major cities, and Suharto resigned from office. But upon departing, he installed as his replacement a hand-picked successor, Vice President B.J. Habibie, who became only the third president in Indonesia’s 53 years of independence. Within a few days of Habibie's ascension, the international media had packed its bags and left, declaring the story over.

     For Indonesia, however, the story was just beginning. In the past year, the nation has continued to be wracked by riots, student protests, ethnic and religious clashes, and military crackdowns, leaving hundreds dead and an atmosphere of economic and political uncertainty. Despite the turmoil, Indonesia's first free elections ever are scheduled be held this year, on June 7. As election day approaches, the country remains beset by troubling issues, but in their wake a host of new leaders has emerged, intent on supplanting the 34 year-old New Order government of Suharto and Habibie.

     Who are the new contenders for power in Indonesia? What's going to happen next? Here's a handy scorecard for keeping track of players and issues likely to be mentioned in news reports coming out of Indonesia during the weeks ahead. (Westerners, please note: many Indonesians use only one name. Former presidents Suharto and Soekarno, and armed forces General Wiranto exemplify this tradition.)

THE PLAYERS

     B.J. Habibie   During 25 years as Indonesia's Research and Technology Minister, Habibie earned a reputation as a brilliant but uncontrolled bureaucrat. He was vice president for only two months before being thrust into the presidency; his selection by Suharto as vice presidential candidate in January of last year was one of the chief reasons the currency went into a tailspin. Habibie is not trusted at home and has even less credibility internationally. The few positive developments that have occurred during his term as president—a free press, fair election laws, bank restructuring—have been the result of widespread pressure and protests. He has opposed each step toward liberalization and reform, and continues to avoid taking any real measures toward bringing Suharto to justice on charges of corruption.

In Indonesia, which has a parliamentary system, the populace elects parties, and parliamentary representatives of the parties that win popular elections in the electoral districts choose presidents. Habibie's party, Golkar, is expected to win up to thirty percent of the vote in the elections (possibly more than any of the opposition parties). But Golkar has little chance of staying in power unless Habibie and his associates pull some tricks out of Suharto's bag and attempt to fix the outcome. The opposition parties have made it clear they are not interested in having Golkar join in any form of coalition government, so Golkar would need to capture at least half the seats in parliament to have any say in the choice of a new leader.

However, it's not certain Habibie will be Golkar's presidential candidate in any case. Armed Forces Chief Wiranto, Golkar Chairman Akbar Tandjung, and Justice Minister Muladi are considered stronger candidates if Golkar has any chance when parliament meets to select a new president after the elections.

     Amien Rais   Amien Rais leapt from obscurity and onto the national scene last May, when he led the student protests that toppled Suharto. An American-trained political scientist (he received his doctorate from the University of Chicago), he has successfully revamped his image from radical Muslim to moderate progressive. Amien was formerly the leader of Indonesia's second-largest Islamic organization, Muhammadiyah. His newly formed National Mandate Party (PAN) is expected to be among the top vote-getters in the elections.

     Megawati Soekarnoputri   The daughter of Indonesia's first president, Soekarno, Megawati has a large and enthusiastic following, particularly among the young and dispossessed. However, she has not made known her position on many issues, if indeed she has one. Instead, she has taken a page from her father's book: appealing to nationalist sentiments. And she has found that the Suharto issue is a crowd pleaser as well.

Megawati rose to prominence in 1996 when she assumed the leadership of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI), but the Suharto government, backed by army troops and assorted thugs, removed her from this position and installed a pro-government puppet in her place. Her current party, the Indonesian Democratic Party-Struggle (PDI-P) has appropriated the colors and images of the original, now obscure, PDI, and is expected to have widespread support in the elections. Currently at 30 percent in the polls, PDI-P is ahead of all contenders.

     Abdurrachman Wahid   Long a pro-Western political moderate and a champion of human rights and personal freedoms, Abdurrachman Wahid—better known by his nickname, Gus Dur—was the most outspoken critic of the government during Suharto's last years in power. As head of Indonesia's largest Islamic organization, Nahdlatul Ulama, he managed to avoid being arrested, banned or otherwise stifled, unlike other prominent critics. Speaking recently in Singapore, he provided a pithy analysis of how Indonesia's leaders have been viewed: "The first president (Soekarno) was crazy about women, the second president (Suharto) was crazy about money, the third president (Habibie) is just crazy."

Were it not for serious health problems (he's nearly blind, and suffered a debilitating stroke last year), Gus Dur would be a strong candidate for the presidency. As things stand now, he and his National Awakening Party (PKB) could at least be very influential on the political scene, especially if the next government is a coalition, as is expected. Moreover, Gus Dur hasn’t ruled out his own candidacy for president; he could emerge as a compromise candidate in a coalition between Megawati's PDI-P, Amien Rais's PAN, and his own PKB.

     Yusril Ihza Mahendra   Suharto's long-time speechwriter, Yusril has formed an opposition party, the Crescent Star Party, which finds support among Islamic factions. He may play a role in the future, and is a name to watch out for.

     Hamzah Haz   Investment Minister Hamzah Haz is the leader of the United Development Party (PPP), which has been the runner-up in previous national elections. Currently, PPP is placing a surprising third in national polls, behind PDI-P and Golkar. As the foremost of the fundamentalist Islamic parties, PPP will likely be included in a coalition government

     General Wiranto   Wiranto, head of the Armed Forces, is the most powerful man in Indonesia. Although to many he represents the tradition of military oppression and corruption that has long plagued this country, Wiranto maintains a strong power base. The importance of the fact that the military will automatically have 38 seats in the next parliament should not be underestimated. Wiranto has welcomed recent overtures from Megawati and Gus Dur to discuss possible cooperation in a coalition government.

     Jose Alexandre "Xanana" Gusmão   Gusmão, the leader of the East Timor Resistance, was imprisoned in 1994 and has been under house arrest in Jakarta since February. Although not a player on the national political scene, he has became one of the most recognizable faces in the nation over the past year, having won many supporters among the Indonesian populace with his charm and seemingly reasonable approach to change. But Gusmão may soon be moved back to a maximum security prison: recent events in East Timor (see below) have resulted in his declaring war on the Indonesian military.

     Sultan Hamengkubuwono X    The hereditary Sultan of Yogyakarta (the traditional seat of Javanese power) and an American trained economist, Hamengkubuwono is officially a member of Golkar, but has long maintained close ties with opposition parties. He is considered a possible compromise candidate for president if the elections do not result in a clear winner, or if a coalition fails to agree on a candidate. His name has become increasingly prominent in recent weeks, with one newsmagazine proclaiming him the "savior of the elections."

     Suharto   The deposed president is suspected of maintaining a presence behind the scenes through his myrmidon, Habibie. Whether Suharto is in fact the dalang (puppet master) he is rumored to be remains a matter of popular conjecture. However, in February an intercepted phone call between Habibie and Attorney General Andi Ghalib was broadcast extensively. It revealed the president and the attorney general conspiring to protect Suharto from serious investigation.

THE ISSUES

      The Economy   The economic meltdown that began in July of 1997 has yet to hit bottom. On March 13 of this year, the government closed 38 private banks and took over control of seven others as part of reforms in the banking sector mandated by the International Monetary Fund. According to Glen Yusuf, the head of the Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency, the March bank closures caused the loss of about 25,000 jobs, which added further to Indonesia's unemployment woes.

More closures are expected in late April as the deadline is reached for recapitalization of 83 more troubled banks. In addition, several large mergers are expected, involving both private and state banks. Despite projected job losses, the banking measures have won widespread approval both at home and abroad, and have resulted in an improvement in the strength of Indonesia's currency, the rupiah.

      The Elections   For the past 33 years, elections in Indonesia have been stage-managed by the government and have involved only three political parties. This year the rules have been changed, and 48 parties are vying for seats in parliament. The government has said it is committed to free and fair elections, but it remains to be seen if the old ways can truly be changed.

      Civil Unrest   The expectation of riots, demonstrations, and clashes between supporters of contending political parties during the run-up to the elections is widespread. The military has promised to crack down on disturbances and to "shoot on sight" those observed destroying property, but its commitment to this policy is questionable. Meanwhile, crime has escalated in the major cities. Continuing religious violence between Muslims and Christians in the Moluccas (in Eastern Indonesia) has seen over 100 killed since January; and, in recent weeks, ethnic clashes pitting native Malays and Dayaks against Madurese newcomers to West Kalimantan (Indonesian Borneo) have left hundreds dead and thousands refugees. Military involvement has been inconsistent in all of these incidents.

     East Timor   In February the Habibie government made a highly publicized offer of independence for East Timor. But at the same time, the military allegedly began arming pro-integration "militias" there, stoking a potentially explosive situation. The powder keg blew in early April: a militia group attacked a church where a pro-independence meeting was being held, killing between 25 and 40 unarmed people. From Jakarta, Xanana Gusmão declared war on the Indonesian military.

Nobel laureate Bishop Carlos Belo, long a voice for peace and dialogue, has now come out in support of Gusmão’s movement. Recent friendly talks between pro-integration leaders and Gusmão have been sidetracked. The situation in East Timor remains tense, with clashes occurring daily between pro-integration and pro-independence forces. Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer has made efforts to negotiate between the two sides, and the possibility of an Australian peacekeeping force in East Timor has been discussed.

Most Indonesians are in favor of allowing East Timor to go free, as it is a drain on Indonesia's financial resources and international reputation. Some politicians, including Amien Rais and the leaders of the United Development Party, have supported a referendum for the people of East Timor. Others, such as Megawati and Abdurrachman Wahid, want East Timor to remain a part of Indonesia.

     Separatist Movements   As the military loses its influence due to divisions among its leadership and a lack of trust on the part of the people, long-smoldering separatist sentiments are coming into the open in Aceh province in northern Sumatra and in the province of Irian Jaya on New Guinea. The government and the military have taken a hard line in both provinces, which are rich in natural resources. It's unlikely they will be allowed to secede under any circumstances, but the mere fact that secession is a topic of political discussion these days indicates the changing position of the military and underscores the uncertainty of Indonesia's future.

Irving Snodgrass has spent most of his life in Indonesia. A linguist and an educator by profession, he is also active in internet-related work. He manages the Fray, the discussion forum of Slate Magazine.