Page last updated January 7, 2000

There is a lot of nonsense floating around in the media and on the net about the Year 2000 problem and its impact on the country/economy/world. This page is an accumulation of predicitions, dire warnings and concerns extracted from various sources. Some of these people will be right - most will be wrong. Only time will tell.

Information presented here is grouped into four categories depending on the impact forseen by the individuals quoted below:

1. Year 2000 will have no impact
2. Year 2000 will have a mild impact
3. Year 2000 will have a major impact
4. Year 2000 will be an absolute disaster

As time goes by, certain Y2K predictions become testable. We are able to compare the predicition to reality. The Y2K Reality Check provides a comparison of Y2K predicitions with reality. Additionally, more and more Y2K experts will be changing their opinions.

If you're interested in the opinion of a computer professional with 28+ years programming experience, check out my opinion. Or, check out Dennis Behreandt's opinion.

If after reading all this you're still worried, the Y2K Survival Kit should get you safely past the turn of the century.

Year 2000 will have no impact

"I think the checks are going to be fine."

"The examination has revealed that the [Air Traffic Control System] will transition the millennium in a routine manner,"

"Computers play an extremely important role in the production of food from factories -- many of which are automated -- down to the distribution of products. We have been working on this problem for the past five to seven years. I think that we've put a tremendous amount of resources into fixing this and we're going to be ready. ... Don't panic. There are not going to be empty food shelves January 1st, 2000. The trucks are going to be rolling."

"The Social Security system is now 100 percent compliant with our standards and safeguards for the year 2000. The system works. It is secure, and therefore older Americans can feel more secure."

"The Department of Defense will be able to protect the people of the United States and its allies in 351 days and 12 hours. There is not a question about that. We will be 100 percent ready by the end of the year."

"As it becomes clear our national infrastructure will hold, overreaction becomes one of the biggest remaining problems."

"I'm not concerned about it. Actually, one of the biggest dangers we face over the next six months is the press hyping Y2K and turning it into a crisis situation for the public."

"Worried? Not at all. I think it's entirely invented by a division of Microsoft."

"We have not one, but two, millennium bugs: one in our computer, the other in our culture. If computer alone, it is a relatively minor problem. Human irratationality exacerbates problems. The media needs something to fixate on after Monica, and it's Y2K."

Year 2000 will have a mild impact

"The vast majority of customers are not going to have a problem using [Microsoft] Office well into the next century. You can be pretty sure that all the work we're doing will be taking everything into consideration."

"Electrical systems are operated such that the loss of one facility, or in some cases two or three facilities, will not cause cascading outages. Y2K poses the threat that failures . . . could result in stressing the electric system to the point of a cascading outage over a large area. I must stress this possibility is extremely low, but conceivable."

"This is not a discrete event where people come to work and half the world shuts down. I don't think we're in for a dislocation. I think a recession caused by this is extremely unlikely. I quite look forward to the year 2000. [Most companies] will ring in the millennium without catastrophe. And benefits of the year 2000 shakeout ... will be with us for a long time to come."

"I don't expect the air travel industry to see major catastrophes. Safety's not an issue, inconvenience is.

"I still think we will have brownouts. I don't know how long they will last. I don't know where they will hit, and I don't know how severe they will be. The very nature of the problem indicates that we cannot get through this with complete, absolute, 100 percent assurance, although there are people in power companies that are now telling me that's what we can depend on.
     "My own sense of the thing says, no, there's got to be some brownouts. There will be some interruptions, but the power grid will not fail. Don't go out and dig up your backyard and bury propane tanks, or go out and buy your very own generator, because I think we will have power,"

"We may see 12 months where people are distracted getting their things ready, but I agree with the general sentiment here, that of the range that people have thought about in terms of the problems that will occur, it will be below the middle of the panic that some people have suggested."

"Yes, there will be problems. Some banks will be unable to process checks; in more than a few places, factories will find machines don't work as they should; and there will be several power outages. But worldwide, the result will be no worse than an inconvenience - on the order of a major winter snowstorm that disrupts our plans for a few days."

"Even though we don't expect a total collapse of our infrastructure or simultaneous devastating effects, it is possible for Y2K-induced effects ... to strike numerous communities across the country at the same time."

"It now appears that a number of countries will experience Year 2000 failures in key infrastructures such as electric power, telecommunications, and transportation."

"I'm not concerned that power will go out and planes will fall from the sky. There could be hiccups in international commerce, but not a complete meltdown."

"It's entirely possible that we could have significant power outages [as a result of Y2K]. The problem is, [utility comapnies] don't know. And another problem is that they don't know how to test for Y2K."

"There's enough ambiguity to cause some mess, but it's nothing worth losing our head over."

"What I really expect is that things will shake out somewhere in the middle. In other words, I anticipate that things will be worse that we are being told but not quite as bad as we fear. If nothing much happens, I will be delighted -- and truly surprised. (These kinds of surprises I can handle!) But if it's worse than I expect, I will be disappointed but prepared. How about you?"

"Pay attention to the things that are vulnerable in your life and make contingency plans. ... Supermarkets could be closed for a few days because supplies may be disrupted. ... I wouldn't book a vacation on an airplane to a foreign country [on Dec. 31, 1999]"

"When we get to Jan. 1, 1999, there will be so many systems that deal with one-year projections of dates that we'll have real fireworks. Maybe that'll get people serious, but unfortunately, if that's what it took, by then it'll be too late.
    "It's hard to believe it could cause this much trouble. Second, it has no business value. It's hard for management to divert funds from more strategic initiatives to fix this. And on top of the whole thing is this cloak of silence, being concerned of the impact of talking about what's going on."

"The study, conducted by Triaxsys Research LLC of Missoula, Mont., also found the total year 2000 expenditure by the 250 companies is expected to be about $33 billion, but only 20 percent of that total has been spent so far, another indication most companies are moving too slowly to address the problem."

"[I]t is estimated that about 57 percent of applications at U.S. companies will not be repaired before date problems begin to cause failures ..."

"What if the electricity goes out? What if there is a disruption in internal or external communications? What if users or customers get irrational data? You may have to hire clerks and go back to the manual review process of the 1930s."

"Many agencies are behind schedule. At the current pace, it is clear that not all mission critical systems will be fixed in time. Much more action is needed to ensure that federal agencies satisfactorily mitigate Year 2000 risks to avoid debilitating consequences."

"[There will be a] fairly significant breakdown of the infrastructure across the country."

"Any firm that has ignored the Y2K problem should be liable for stupidity."

"By the time the Labor Department gets around to expanding its database of retired programmers, it will be too late; again, it would have been a great idea in 1995, but not in mid-1998. "In any case, the problem is not the shortage of programmers, but an unwillingness to allocate resources: Throughout most of business and government today, only 20 to 30 percent of the programming work force has been assigned to the Y2K problem. If an organization is really serious about Y2K, then it will declare a moratorium on its other development projects and assign a larger percentage of its existing work force to Y2K repairs."

"[C]atastrophic failures will not occur everywhere in January 2000 ... failures in less developed countries, smaller companies, and companies with high global dependencies will cause a negative impact to the world economy."

"Many year 2000 contingency and disaster recovery plans cover only a narrow period around January 1, 2000. However, we believe the majority of failures will not occur during this time."

"It is highly unlikely that all of the Medicare systems will be compliant in time to ensure the delivery of uninterrupted benefits and services."

"This predicament is disturbing. The results show that even at this late stage, the majority of small and medium-sized enterprises [in the U.K.] are still not taking the year 2000 issue seriously. We predict that at least 10 percent of these companies will go into liquidation as a result of system failure. This will result in the loss of 291,072 jobs."

"Airlines are undoubtedly working very hard to fix their systems, but to an extent it is largely a problem that will be decided by insurance. If insurance companies say they will not cover an airline for a year 2000 problem, airlines will not be able to cover themselves."

"European governments and public sector organizations have only spent between five and 10 percent of what it needs to fix their systems. The public sector is the biggest danger here. They're not doing the work at all. ... Hospitals, government procurement, defense procurement, welfare, are areas where we'll see disruption from the end of this year. The Dutch, Swedes and the Irish have done a good job, but very few European governments can stand up to scrutiny. They've been saying a lot but not really doing much."

"The millennium computer problem is going to start manifesting itself as we cross into 1999. There will also be clusters of problems at key dates like the end of the first quarter."

"It is now clear that a large number of Federal computing systems will simply not be prepared for January 2000. At the same time, the utilities industry, the financial services industry, the telecommunications industry, vital modes of transportation, and other indispensable industrial sectors are all at risk."

"It is time for the President to declare that the Year 2000 Problem is a National Priority. If sufficient progress is not made by an intermediate deadline, he may even need to escalate the Year 2000 Problem to a National Emergency."

"Our latest Millennium Index shows that UK organisations have re-assessed the amount of work to do and realised they will not fix all their systems. They've therefore begun to focus on business continuity planning."

"We're concerned about the potential disruption of power grids, telecommunications and banking services, among other possible fallout, especially in countries already torn by political tensions,"

"By almost all surveys or measures, health care is far behind other industries in planning and preparation for the Year 2000."

"There's sufficient information for people to say there's a substantial risk of disruption."

"Make no mistake this problem will affect us all individually and collectively in very profound ways. ... It will indeed impact individual businesses and the global economy. In some cases, lives could even be at stake."

"The committee has no data to suggest that the United States will experience nation-wide social or economic collapse, but we believe that disruptions will occur that in some cases will be significant. The international situation will be more disturbing. Those who suggest that it will be nothing more than a 'bump in the road' are simply misinformed."

"At midnight, Dec. 31, 1999, millions of computers throughout the world will begin to crash. The lights will go out in many cities around the globe where the computers that run the electric power grid fail to make the transition to the next century. Despite years of warnings many government agencies and businesses may find themselves unable to function as their essential computer programs either shut down or produce false data. The stock market and banking system are as essential to modern life as the government itself. The failure to correct this massive problem before the Year 2000 deadline may threaten our jobs, our safety, our food and our finances."

"For the first few weeks of 2000, you'll probably see gas prices shoot up drastically. I would not be surprised to see a 50 percent rise in prices."

"I expect the stock market to react and begin a downward spiral, and the number of Y2K optimists will continue to dwindle."

"That's [April 1, 1999] when Canada and New York State begin their fiscal year that will, of course, include dates beyond Year 2000. As a result, planning systems, especially budgets that haven't been repaired, will fail as they attempt to process Y2K dates. ... With New York City being the world's media capital, such tabs as the New York Daily News, will be yelling: 'Horror! Disaster!'"

"The script for Y2K is all wrong. Instead of Y2K failures occurring at midnight on Dec. 31, they will be spread over a 30-month period that will begin in July"

"[T]he causes [for Y2K failures to begin in July] will be forecasting software that looks six months into the future, the beginning of new fiscal years for many corporations and some date-related anomalies in software code."

"The number of Y2K failures will increase further in October as forecasting software that looks three months ahead runs up against the Jan. 1, 2000, date and still more companies begin new fiscal years"

"25 percent of Y2K computer failures will occur in 1999, 55 percent will occur in 2000 and 15 percent will occur in 2001. The other 5 percent occurred before 1999."

"We are undoubtedly heading for an economic slowdown. In my view the findings of this survey point to an extraordinary position where about 300 of the UK's largest businesses appear to be playing Russian roulette with the Millennium Bug. Many of those companies are unlikely to make it and the prospect of serious disruption is a reality.

"Whether by bombing a jetliner or attacking crowds in (New York's) Times Square, it's almost certain the Year 2000 will be ushered in with a major terrorist attack. ... [There will be a] violent upsurge in guerilla violence [against America]."

"In spite of all these clues the only thing a rational person can conclude is that somehow, someway, it is highly probable that something bad will happen either because of Y2K or on behalf of Y2K. Problems and violence will either be born of lunacy or rationalized planning, of a foreign or domestic nature, and on either a small or large scale, but you can bet -- say the experts -- that something will happen."

"[T]he global picture that is slowly emerging is cause for concern ... Our assessments suggest that the global community is likely to experience varying degrees of Y2K-related failures in every sector, in every region and at every economic level.
    "Y2K-related disruptions in the international flow of goods and services are likely ... a breakdown in any part of the supply chain would have a serious impact on the U.S. and world economies."

"Problems will start to bubble up and by the second quarter [of 2000], there will be a big mess."

"Severe long- and short-term disruptions to supply chains are likely to occur [due to Y2K-related system failures]. ... The Y2K problem still has the potential to be very disruptive, necessitating continued, intensive preparation in the time remaining,"

"I'd love to say the Y2K optimism sweeping our land is justified -- but I can't. The plain facts about Y2K-readiness paint a much more somber picture. I'm afraid Y2K optimism is based mostly on wishful thinking. And I'm afraid millions of citizens will be shocked -- shocked! -- to discover early next year that politicians and business leaders have been lying to them about Y2K."

"We are heading for a disaster greater than anything the world has experienced since the bubonic plague of the mid-14th century."

"[Y2K will] be known as the greatest social, political, and financial crisis mankind has faced since the great plagues of the 14th century that wiped out one-third of Europe."

"[T]he Y2K problem is systemic. It cannot be fixed."

"Warning: Fiscal years arrive before calendar years do. Fiscal years for most states roll over on July 1. Fiscal year 99 rolls over on July 1, 1998 in most state budgets. If just one state shuts down because its computers are programmed to read 99 as end of run, the bank run will begin in that state no later than July 2, 1998. It will spread to the whole world when depositors realize that the entire payments system - and most governments - will shut down no later than the year 2000."

"If we don't have electricity, nothing else works. On New Year's Eve 1999, let me suggest three places you don't want to be: in an elevator, in an airplane, or in a hospital."

"Gartner said it predicts 20 percent will still have not undertaken any efforts by 2000, either because they have little or no automation, or will try to 'ride it out,' according to Lou Marcoccio, an analyst with Gartner Group, in Stamford, Conn."

"Some government departments are so far behind schedule in their efforts to prepare computer systems for the 21st century that they may not be done until 2014"

"Russia is extremely vulnerable to the Year 2000 problem and an accidental launch is possible. ... If the date is used somewhere to track an incoming missile and the date shifts to 0000000 for a brief moment, there is a division by zero--an extremely high value--that fools the system into thinking there is a high probability of an attack in progress. This error in calculation might cause the computer to identify the blip on the screen as a rocket."

"Currently I believe there is a 70 percent chance of a global recession as severe as the one that occurred in the 1973-74 oil crisis. Just as that recession was caused by the disruption in the supply of oil, I believe the disruption in the flow of information could be equally as disruptive."

"It is increasingly evident that an appreciable part of the nation's infrastructure could be adversely affected in some way by what is commonly referred to as the Y2K problem. Considering the possibilities of a large-scale disruption of governmental, commercial and other routine daily activities, it is certain that the National Guard will be among the first organizations activated to assist in the revitalization of the nation's computer dependent infrastructure."

"We'll need to do this soon because if we're going to recommend people buy generators, they'll need to get their orders in soon. Already, most manufacturers are backlogged. If you call to order long-term food storage supplies, you'll find yourself on a waiting list. A warning is no good if it's given too late to do anything."

"The more I uncovered, the more I realized how extraordinarily vulnerable the system is. The writing is on the wall: it is not only possible, but probable that there are going to be food shortages."

"Americans cannot escape the inevitable risks of Y2K. Like characters in The Decameron fleeing a medieval plague, they can run to the hills if they want, as some doomsayers are doing, but the bug eventually will catch them, frustrate their best-laid plans and cost them dearly for years to come."

"Based on what I learned at DistribuTECH '98, I am convinced that there is a 100 percent chance that a major portion of the domestic electrical infrastructure will be lost as a result of the Year 2000 computer and embedded systems problem. The industry is fiddling whilst the infrastructure burns."

Link to Gary North's site for lots of gloom and doom Year 2000 scare talk.