Click here to know my current status and activities
Pubblications
(with some abstracts in English)
  • 1993
    • [1]  Rosina A. (1993), "Una generalizzazione dell’Inverse Projection", in AA.VV., Per una storia della popolazione italiana: problemi di metodo, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche "Paolo Fortunati", Università degli Studi di Bologna, Bologna, pp. 73-80.

    Abstract available on Population Index on line (click below):
    A generalization of inverse projection [60:40538; 60:40548]
     
     
     [2]  Rosina A., Rossi F. (1993), "Una estensione dell’Inverse Projection con mortalità differenziata per età", Statistica, LIII, n.4, pp. 619-631.

    Abstract available (click below):
    An inverse projection extension by mortality age differentiation
     

  • 1994
    • [3]  Rosina A., Rossi F. (1994), Ricostruzioni aggregate dei processi evolutivi delle popolazioni, CLEUP, Padova.
     
    Abstract available on Population Index on line (click below):
    Aggregate reconstructions of popoulation developments [60:40549]

     
    [4]  Rosina A., Rossi F. (1994), "Schede informatiche: RAP!, sistema integrato per la Ricostruzione Aggregata delle Popolazioni", Bollettino di Demografia Storica, 21, SIDeS.
     

  • 1995
    • [5]  Rosina A. (1995), "Individuazione di tipologie di mortalità con tecniche di ricostruzione aggregata", in AA.VV., Le Italie demografiche. Saggi di demografia storica, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Udine, Udine.
     

    [6]  Rosina A. (1995), Ricostruzione aggregata dei processi evolutivi della popolazione di Adria, Rapporti Tecnici/Technical Reports, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Padova.
     

    [7]  Rosina A. (1995), "La popolazione del Veneto durante la dominazione austriaca. Un tentativo di ricostruzione (1815-1865)",  Bollettino di Demografia Storica, SIDeS, 23.

    Abstract available on Population Index on line (click below):
    The population of the Veneto during the period of Austrian rule (1816-1865) [63:40078]

  • 1996
    • [8]  Rosina A. (1996), IPD 3.0: Applicazione automatica dell'inverse projection differenziata (passo annuale e quinquennale), Rapporti Tecnici/Technical Reports, Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Padova.
     

    [9] Rosina A., Etonti M., Billari F. (1996), "La popolazione di Chioggia nel Seicento", SIDeS, comunicazione presentata al convegno su La popolazione italiana nel Seicento, Firenze, 28-30 novembre 1996 (Atti in corso di stampa, a cura della SIDeS).

  • 1997
    • [10] Rosina A. (1997), "Popolazione veneta e mortalità infantile (1830-1940)", in P. Giorgi, S. Strozza (a cura di), Studi di popolazione. Temi di ricerca nuova, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche, Università di Roma "La Sapienza".
     

    [11] Barbi E., Rosina A. (1997), "Generalized Inverse Projection: caratteristiche metodologiche e possibilità applicative ai dati italiani", SIS-GCD, Giornate di studio sulla popolazione, Roma, 7-9 gennaio 1997.

  • 1998

    • [12] Billari F., Rosina A. (1998), "Does Cohort Matter in Pre-Transitional Mortality? An Analysis of Adult Mortality using an Event History Approach: The Case of Chioggia in the XVIIth Century", in uscita sull'ultimo numero di GENUS.

      
    My current status and activities
       back to INDEX
     
     

    ABSTRACTS



     

    AN INVERSE PROJECTION EXTENSION BY MORTALITY AGE DIFFERENTIATION

    This article deals with a new version of the inverse projection, the aggregative method for reconstructing historical population conceived, at the beginning of the '70s, by R.D. Lee. This new version, called differentiated inverse projection, can detect the differentiated incidence of mortality in the various age groups. This is possible because a further information is used: deceases according to age.
    After a methodological presentation of the new version, a demostrative application is reported, which proves the improvement of the estimates produced by differentiated inverse projecion in comparison to those of the original version.
     

       back to INDEX
     



     

    MIXTURE MODELLING OF SURVIVAL DATA WITH LONG-TERM SURVIVORS: ANALYSIS OF HUTTERITE BIRTH INTERVALS USING GIBBS SAMPLING

    We propose a mixture model that combines a discrete-time event history model incorporating unobserved heterogeneity in the risk of experiencing the event of interest with a logistic regression model for the probability of never experiencing
    the event of interest, i.e., being a  long-term survivor.
    We propose a Bayesian approach for the fitting of such mixture models, which we believe has significant advantages over existing approaches. Our  Bayesian approach is based on Gibbs sampling, a Monte Carlo method which  leads to a computationally intensive but relatively straightforward solution to the problem of fitting survival models with long-term survivors.
    We illustrate the Bayesian approach through an analysis of Hutterite birth interval data. The mixture model used combines a
    logistic-normal-geometric discrete-time event history model for birth interval data incorporating unobserved heterogeneity in fecundability with a logistic regression model for the probability of being sterile.

       back to INDEX
     
     



     

    DEMOGRAPHIC EVOLUTION IN THE XVIII AND XIX CENTURY:
    THE VENETO MODEL

    We present a description of the demographic system in Veneto in the XVIII century (before the end of the Republic of Venice in 1797), and an annual reconstruction - using the differentiated inverse projection technique - of the population by age, as well fertility and mortality measures, from 1812 to 1921.
    Our aim was to evaluate the different role of fertility and infant and adult mortality on the population evolution in the XVIII and XIX century.
    The main result we found is that the rise in neonatal and infant mortality played a key role on the XVIII century demographic stagnation, and that the decline from very high level of neonatal and infant mortality in early XIX to relative low level in early XX was the most important cause of the relevant population growth, at least until the phenomenon of great emigration to South America started.
     

       back to INDEX
     

    This page hosted by Get your own Free Homepage