2020 Vision: at the Midway; a book review

Avon Books #380-18390-095. 192 pages.

In 1970, science fiction writer, editor and  professional future-
forecaster Jerry Pournelle commissioned 8 science fiction writers
to each produce a short story set 50 years into the future, in
the year 2020. Those stories plus an introduction by Pournelle
were published as 2020 Vision, in 1974. Since we are now about
half way there, this is a good time to check on how the
predictions are doing. 

The authors will meet at the 2020 World Science Fiction
Convention and buy a drink for anyone who brings a copy of the
book and points out just where a prediction went wrong. I will be
84 years old then, but hope to be there with my copy. Maybe I
will see you there?

INTRODUCTION: Do We Live in a Golden Age?

Since many of the stories project a dismal future, the question
arose: was the world of 1970 a "Golden Age" that future
generations would look back on with envy? There have been such in
the past; how do people know at the time that the present will be
a peak? There were already many predictions that "quality of
life" had peaked, and that the future would be down hill.

Pournelle does make some specific predictions about the future.
He predicts that the population of the US will rise only until
about the year 2000 and will than drop, so that by 2020 it will
be about the same as in 1970. Clearly, he missed the implication
of the Immigration Reform bill passed 5 years earlier, in 1965.
Before that change, his projection might have been realistic: see
for example my web page graph of US population in the Immigration
section at the bottom of the Political section, and my
explanation of it.

He also claims that there is not "a ghost of a chance" that the
capital  investment can be found to raise the living standards of
the  developing nations: they will remain poor in 2020. But he is
thinking only in terms of government foreign aid, or the prospect
of the poor countries using military force to gain wealth. He
never considered the possibility of NAFTA or GATT, expanded trade
and a "global economy". And he could not be expected to have 
predicted that Congress would pass the "fast track" provision for
trade treaties in 1974; this may have played a key role in creating
the "global economy".

The jury is still out on whether or not 3rd World living
standards WILL have risen much by 2020, but looking at the
various Asian Tigers, and developments in Brazil, India,
Indonesia and China, it is a least possible. In his essay
"The East is (in the) Red", Paul Krugman points out that in
1975, workers in South Korea and Tiawan received only 6% of
the wages of their US counterparts. But by 1995 this had
grown to 43% and 34%. (The essay is on Krugman's web page,
linked to mine).

He concludes that 2020 may look a lot like 1970, except more so.
A rich Western Europe, Japan, US and USSR, with famine in the
rest of the world.


BUILD ME A MOUNTAIN by Ben Bova

The first story has a theme that Bova has used before: a future
USA that has the technical ability to explore space, but that has
lost the political will to do so. When he first used this in a
story published in the late 1960's (during the enthusiasm
generated by the Apollo moon landings), I thought it a more
fantastic idea than time travel. But events have unfortunately
proven Bova to be a prophet. In his story, there are still men
alive in 2020 who have walked on the moon, and some of them are
lobbying a reluctant Congress for a permanent moon base. At the
rate our space program is going, will there be anyone alive in
2020 who has been to the moon?

CLOAK OF ANARCHY by Larry Niven

This is also a world that could still happen in 2020, but some
things would have to happen pretty fast. The car has vanished
from the scene, and abandon freeways in California have become 
Free Parks, where all kinds of people frolic. There are floating
mechanical "copseyes" that enforce a libertarian's utopia by
stunning anyone who attempts to use force against another; but
anything else is OK. But of course there is always someone who 
will rebel against even that level of restriction on their
freedom.

SILENT IN GEHENNA by Harlan Ellison

A strangely prophetic story about a rebel against a US government
that he views as oppressive. So he blows up buildings- a sort of
Timothy McVeigh come 24 years early. There are references to
computer data banks and Paolo Soleri's arcologies.

THE PUGILIST by Poul Anderson

This is the most complete miss in the book. The USSR has
conquered the US in a war and has installed the Peoples Republic
of the United States. (It helps to remember that in 1970 it was
not at all clear that the Cold War would not continue
indefinitely, or that the USSR would lose. In fact none of the
stories predicts the collapse of the USSR). This is the story of
a rebel organization, the Stephen Decator Society, that is
attempting to restore American democracy, and how they fail.

And a note aside: Stephen Decator was an American Navy officer
who commanded the raid to recover the USS Philadelphia from the
Barbary Pirates, and is probably best known for his "out of
context quote". What he ACTUALLY said, in a toast to a graduating
class of midshipmen was:

"To our country: in her intercourse with foreign nations, may she
always be in the right. But, to our country; right or wrong!"

EAT, DRINK, AND BE MERRY by Dian Girand

A short, lighthearted tale of a future with electronically
enforced health and dieting. It could yet happen by 2020.

PROGNOSIS: TERMINAL by David McDaniel

This is a future that hints at a lot of technology. People
watch a lot of holo, talk on cellular phones, have jewels in
their teeth, and have a kind of internet (but not as good as the
1997 one).   There is much jargon that sounds strange to us
today, but that will (it is assumed) sound perfectly normal to
the people of 2020. People work at computer terminals and
movements are video taped. There are 10 billion people on earth.
Signals have been detected from an alien race that has been
destroyed when their sun exploded.

FUTURE PERFECT by A. E. van Vogt

This is a very different world from 1970. Or 1997. The physical
appearance has not changed much, but young men, when they become
18 are given a Life Credit of one million dollars :-), BUT there
is also...
Well as the story says "When biology solved the problem of
locking up the male sex organ, and later opening it up so that it
could function only with one woman-his wife- the entire course of
family relations and in fact human history was altered it a
positive fashion." This is the story of a rebel against that
system.

A THING OF BEAUTY by Norman Spinrad

I found this to be the most entertaining story in the book, and
it could still happen. The US has suffered a serious decline and
Japan is now the leading world power. Recall that in 1970 this
seemed a likely future; since then Japan has had a serious long
recession while the US has prospered during the 1980's and 90's
thus far. But things could still change.

At any rate Mr. Ito, a rich Japanese business man is shopping for
an American artifact to decorate is estate and impress the in
laws. Should he buy Yankee Stadium or the Statue of Liberty? They
are all for sale by a desperate Bureau of National Antiquities.
At any rate he finds the Perfect gift, and also the perfect way
to pay for it. Great fun.