• Construction of a Wal-Mart has been proposed at the intersection of Route 210 (Indian Head Highway) and Route 228, now a wooded site surrounded by low density residential development. Residents concerned about the impact on traffic, on the environment, and on the already struggling shopping centers located along Indian Head Highway formed Citizens for a Liveable 210 to work to stop this development.
• In other parts of the country, an estimated 75 percent of the Wal-Mart sales have come from existing stores in the area. A study of the longer term impact found that sales of small retailers dropped 47 percent over ten years after a Wal-Mart was opened.
• The proposed location is a prime example of sprawl. Sprawl consumes thousands of acres of forest. It causes millions to be spent on new schools, streets, and water and sewer lines; leaves boarded up houses, vacant storefronts, closed businesses, abandoned and sometimes contaminated industrial sites; leads to traffic congestion stretching miles from urban centers; and leaves a loss of community in its path.
• The State of Maryland’s Smart Growth Policy is designed to encourage development and economic expansion where it makes the most sense and where existing infrastructure can support it. Expansion away from the metropolitan area should be discouraged and resources must be devoted to revitalizing the urban and inner-ring suburban communities. Local government processes also asked to consider the larger impacts of development on an area and its surrounding communities.
• CFAL210 researched the impact of a Wal-Mart on five shopping centers in the Highway 210 Corridor and found:

These severe economic impacts should be fully considered, along with the other adverse consequences of increased sprawl growth, before the construction of a Wal-Mart in Accokeek is permitted.

In May 1999, residents in Accokeek were unhappily surprised to learn that the developer of a large, wooded property at the intersection of Maryland State Highways 210 and 228 had contracted with Wal-Mart and was working on plans to build a 203,000 square-foot superstore on the site.

The developer, TSCMuma Mattawoman Partnership, had discussed a variety of possible uses with some community groups over several years, but no use as large, aggressive, and out of keeping with the largely residential and quasi-rural character of the community had ever been contemplated by the residents.

Research by concerned citizens quickly turned up a number of facts:

• With 203,000 square feet, the proposed store would be the largest Wal-Mart in Maryland;
• Wal-Mart superstores are typically open 24 hours a day;
• Wal-Mart appeared to have targeted this area in southern Maryland for its typical "saturation" strategy, and was planning for construction of at least two additional new Wal-Marts in the vicinity.

As area residents continued their research, they were also talking to friends and neighbors. Sentiment against the proposed Wal-Mart was widespread.

• Traffic was already congested on Highway 210. Already at six lanes, it was the major traffic artery in the area, and was clogged with traffic, not only at rush hours, but often on weekends as well. A store the size of the proposed Wal-Mart superstore would bring an estimated 900 additional trips an hour, along with major new truck traffic.
• The location would be in the watershed of the Mattawoman Creek, a creek which has retained near-pristine conditions and is the spawning and nursery grounds for a variety of migratory fish and for largemouth bass. Runoff from the proposed massive parking lot and from Wal-Mart plant nursery would introduce gas, oil, fertilizer, herbicides and more into the Creek, with toxic results.
• The impact along the Indian Head Highway would be devastating, as Wal-Marts typically realize most of their business by drawing customers away from existing stores. The shopping malls along Highway 210 already had a high vacancy rate. Area residents feared the result would be a string of largely vacant shopping centers, leading to unsightly deteriorating buildings, declining property values, and increased problems with public safety.

Above all, area residents wanted to preserve their largely green, quasi-rural community. Nearby Waldorf with its miles of strip malls, an established Wal-Mart, and many other mass discounters and big box retailers was only a 10-minute drive away. Many reasoned that there was enough shopping that was already available in a readily accessible location.

Out of these discussions came a first community meeting, announced via e-mail and word of mouth. Fifty residents showed up, and interest was high. Soon an ad hoc organization, Citizens for a Liveable 210 was formed to oppose the construction of the proposed Wal-Mart. CFAL210 has an e-mail address (liveable 210@radix.net) and a web site (www.geocities.com/heartland/forest/1344). Communicate to members occurs through regular e-mail bulletins as well as meetings. A steering committee holds regular planning meetings and a network of volunteers has been developed in all of the neighborhoods in the area. The group continues to grow and gain support as more and more residents find out about the proposed Wal-Mart.

As a part of its research efforts, Citizens for a Liveable 210 found that the impact of the opening of a Wal-Mart on existing retailers in other locations across the United States has been dramatic.

According to Dr. Kenneth E. Stone, a professor at Iowa State University, in his paper "Impact of the Wal-Mart Phenomenon on Rural Communities," some small towns in Iowa have lost up to 47 percent of their retail trade after 10 years of Wal-Mart stores nearby. Dr. Stone first studied the impact of Wal-Mart stores in 1988 to help Iowa retailers understand the impacts so they could develop strategies to remain competitive.

The original study found that the typical Wal-Mart took more than 75% of its sales from existing stores in the area.

His major findings after completing the more in-depth ten-year study included the following:

• Sales for general merchandise stores began declining immediately after the Wal-Mart stores opened, a cumulative 34 percent after 10 years.
• Patronage of eating and drinking establishments immediately declined and after 10 years were still nine percent below the statewide averages; if these establishments were nearby, there was a spillover effect and sales increased somewhat.
• Sales for home furnishings stores declined by 31 percent after 10 years, unless the stores were near the Wal-Mart stores and enjoyed a spillover effect.
• Building materials stores were hard hit., with sales declines of 20 percent after seven years. In the Iowa study, however, building store sales overall started to increase as the large building materials stores moved in (such as Home Depot and Lowe’s). The smaller s stores continued to show a decline in sales that totaled 25 percent after ten years.
• Local stores selling the same merchandise as a Wal-Mart will most probably lose sales after a Wal-Mart opens nearby. Specialty store (such sporting goods, card and gift, druggists) store sales dropped 17 percent over the ten-year period; clothing store sales dropped 28 percent.
• Total retail sales in towns with Wal-Marts opening nearby were 15 percent lower than the pre-Wal-Mart level, with sales continuously decreasing over the 10-year period.

Dr. Stone summarizes his general findings on the impact of a nearby Wal-Mart as follows:

Because of concern about the uncontrolled sprawl occurring in the metropolitan areas of the state of Maryland, Governor Parris N. Glendening initiated and the Maryland General Assembly then enacted a "Smart Growth Policy."

The program is designed to encourage development and economic expansion where it makes the most sense and where existing infrastructure can support it. The policy did not create a new layer of laws or regulations but uses tax laws and other economic incentives to discourage sprawl.

According to Governor Glendening, sprawl consumes thousands of acres of forest and farmland. It also:

• Requires government to spend millions to build new schools, streets, and water and sewer lines;
• Leaves boarded up houses, vacant storefronts, closed businesses, abandoned and sometimes contaminated industrial sites, and traffic congestion stretching miles from urban centers;
• Creates a hidden debt of unfunded infrastructure and services, social dysfunction, urban decay, and environmental degradation; and
• Leads to a loss of community.

Sprawl is partially driven by a disinvestment in the city and older suburbs. As the tax base declines and public investment in schools, police and fire protection, parks, and other public services and amenities is reduced, cities become less attractive to potential home owners. Reversing the decline of urban and older suburban communities calls for a regional response. Not only must expansion away from the metropolitan area be stopped, but also the urban and inner-ring suburban communities must be revitalized.

The most recent Prince George’s Master Plan for the region describes Accokeek as a suburban corridor community, with low development densities, The plan focussed on the need for convenience goods and services in a small shopping center that "would be the focal point around which other commercial and civic activity " could evolve. When the Plan was enacted, however, a zoning change to M-X-T (Mixed Use – Transportation Oriented) was made for the land that now the site of the proposed Wal-Mart. M-X-T zoning call for two of three uses (1-retail; 2-office, research or industrial; 3-dwellings, hotel or motel). The purposes of this zoning are listed as follows:

• To promote orderly development and redevelopment of land;
• To conserve the value of land and buildings;
• To promote the effective and optimum use of transit and other major transportation systems;
• To encourage diverse land uses which blend together harmoniously; to promote optimum land planning; and
• To allow freedom of architectural design to provide an opportunity and incentive to the developer to achieve excellence in physical, social, and economic planning.

It requires the developer to submit detailed plans for approval by the County Planning Board. (Note: Such detailed plans have not yet been submitted by the developer of the Wal-Mart.). When such a submission occurs, the Planning Board must find the plans in conformance with a wide range of areas, such as compatibility with existing and proposed development and the ability to be served by existing or already funded transportation facilities.

The Prince George’s County Council has designated the Accokeek area as a Development Review District. A number of Accokeek citizens have been named to the Development Review Commission, which is charged with reviewing proposed development with the following goals:

• To promote those qualities in the environment which bring value to the County;
• To foster the attractiveness and functional utility of developing areas of the County and enhance the desirability of the County as a place to live and work;
• To preserve the integrity, quality, and discernible character of identifiable areas of the County;
• To protect public investments in the County as a whole;
• To raise the level of community expectations for the quality of its environment within the County;
• To preserve property values and thereby promote the health, safety, and general welfare of the citizens of the County in general; and
• To contribute to the attractiveness of the County so as to maintain and improve the economic value and stability of the property within.

When the detailed designs for the proposed Wal-Mart are filed with the County Planning Board, the nine citizen members of the Accokeek Development Review Commission will then have the opportunity for review and comment, in light of these development objectives.

Although the Metropolitan Washington region experienced strong growth in the last five years, growing in population by more than 209,800 people between 1994 and 1998, the economic prosperity was not uniform throughout the various areas of the region. In fact, the District of Columbia lost 44,000 people in the five-year period, while the outer ring suburbs experienced very high rates of growth. This pattern is the definition of sprawl growth. Total personal income grew but average incomes varied greatly by jurisdiction, as estimated by Claritas Inc. Selected jurisdictions are compared with Prince George’s County in the following table.

Prince George’s Population and Income Compared to Its Neighbors, 1998

County Area	Population	Average Household Income
Washington Area	3,933,400	$78,700
Prince George’s	782,100	$61,900
Inside Beltway (est.)	56%	$52,900
Outside Beltway (est.)	44%	$76,400
District of Columbia	520,400	$65,700
Anne Arundel	473,800	$66,600
Charles	116,500	$65,300
Montgomery	829,600	$91,400
Fairfax	953,900	$96,200
Alexandria	119,000	$76,000
Prince William	300,000	$66,300

The average household income in Prince George’s County ranks higher than state and national averages. In 1998, according to an estimate by Claritas Inc., it rose to $61,900. The outside-the-Beltway section of the County has more residents and higher household incomes that Howard County to the north, as well as Loudoun and Prince William Counties in Virginia.

A growing number of residents, developers, and county officials say the number and quality of retailers does not match the county’s demographics. Merchants say that although there may be residents with enough money, there are no high-end malls in which to locate. Retailers such Bloomingdale’s, Macy’s, and Nordstrom’s typically look for a competitive mix of retailers or a suitable shopping center development in the works. That does not exist in Prince George’s County. The County itself has been accused of making poor zoning decisions, allowing too much low-end residential development, something upscale retailers avoid. Many retailers also complain that the owners of many aging shopping centers don’t seem interested in the deteriorating conditions of their malls.

Although there are current plans for shopping centers in Prince George’s County, in Bowie, at the old US Airways Arena and near the Greenbelt Metro station, there are few, if any, plans or even discussions about renovating older centers nearer to the central city.

CFAL210 conducted a survey of the shopping centers located along the Highway 210 Corridor that would be most affected by the construction of a Wal-Mart at the 210/228 intersection in Accokeek. A map of their locations and a page summarizing the findings on each of the centers are included at the end of this report.

A sixth commercial area, at the intersection of Bryan’s Road and Indian Head Highway in Charles County, would also be affected by at Wal-Mart at the intersection of 210/228, a few miles north, but no detailed information was available for this shopping center during CFAL210’s initial survey. CFAL210 estimates that the current vacancy rate in the Bryan’s Road Shopping Center is over 15 percent and that most of the stores would face competition from a nearby Wal-Mart.

Basic information on the four of the five centers in Prince George’s County was obtained from the 1998 County Shopping Center Inventory. The fifth, Accokeek Village, had not yet been built at the time of the county inventory, but comparable information was obtained from the Nellis Corporation, the developer. CFAL210 volunteers then updated the information by visiting each center, noting where there were new tenants and vacancies.

The current vacancy rates were sobering. They are summarized in the table below.

Current Vacancy Rates in Highway 210 Corridor

Not only are current vacancy rates high, but the lags between tenants are also substantial. For example, the space soon to be occupied by World Gym at the Potomac Village Center had been vacant for well over ten years. And the former Hechinger’s space at Olde Forte Village has been for available for lease for years.

Next, an evaluation was made about which stores would be competing directly with Wal-Mart (selling all of the same merchandise or services -- for example, drug stores, card and gift stores, hair cutting establishments.) and those that would be in partial competition (selling some of the same merchandise -- for example, grocery stores, liquor stores, video stores). Based on results of research in other locations across the United States, Wal-Mart competition would drive many of these retailers out of business. Again, it appears that the impact of Wal-Mart competition would be devastating, as shown in the following table:

Retail Space in Competition with Wal-Mart in Highway 210 Corridor

Another source of problems for the existing stores would be competition from Wal-Mart for employees. It is estimated that a new Wal-Mart would need over 400 new employees and the labor market is now very tight, with an unemployment rate in the county of well under 2 percent. Existing stores now have a difficult time filling vacant jobs and retaining current employees. This situation will be exacerbated with the increased demand for employees created by a new store.

Finally, CFAL210 addressed the issue of stores that would lose sales because of fewer people stopping at the shopping center. Many of the stores depend on customers that complete a number of errands with one trip to the center – for example, stopping by the dry cleaners and bank, while shopping at the drug store or grocery store, and then having a meal at one of the restaurants, all at the same center. These types of store also include establishments that provide services, such as shoe repair and dentists, as well. The stores that would be affected if there were less traffic in the shopping centers where they are located are shown in the following table:

Losses in Sales due to Reduced Customer Traffic in Highway 210 Corridor

CFAL210 estimates that the impact of the opening of a Wal-Mart on the five existing shopping centers along Indian Head Highway would be very great.

• Current vacancy rates range from 10 percent to 56 percent, with an average of 31 percent in the five centers; over 150,000 square feet of retail space is now vacant.
• Of the stores currently leasing space, with 336,356 square feet, most would face direct or partial competition with a Wal-Mart; CFAL210 estimates that 75 percent of the space is used to sell goods or provide services that would also be available at a Wal-Mart.
• Many stores in the existing shopping centers require a flow of customer traffic to ensure their survival; stores that would be hurt by decreased traffic lease 43 percent of the space in the existing shopping centers.

These severe economic impacts should be reviewed in the context of Maryland’s Smart Growth policies, designed to stop sprawl and conserve our resources. Citizens for a Liveable 210 calls upon the decisionmakers in Prince George’s County, including the Planning Board and the Accokeek Development Review Commission to give these findings serious consideration. CFAL210 will continue to work for development decisions which will result in Smart Growth, not sprawl.

"Economic Trends in Metropolitan Washington, 1994-1998" published by Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, Department of Human, Planning, and Public Safety, July 14, 1999.

Glendening, Parris N. "Smart Growth and Neighborhood Conservation: Preserving What’s Best about Maryland" at www.op.state.md.us/smartgrowth.

Goodno, James B. "Facing the Challenges of Smart Growth: Can Americans Change Planning Policies, Building Practices?" in Urban Ecology, Volume Number 2, 1999.

Stone, Dr. Kenneth E., "Competing with the Discount Mass Merchandisers: Impact of Wal-Mart Stores and Other Mass Merchandisers in Iowa, 1983-1993"

Stone, Dr. Kenneth E., "Impact of the Wal-Mart Phenomenon on Rural Communities", published in proceedings Increasing Understanding of Public Problems and Policies – 1997 by the Farm Foundation, Chicago, Illinois.

Stoughton, Stephanie, "The Decline and Fall of a Mall: Landover is Seen as a Drag on Retail Efforts" in The Washington Post, Prince George’s Extra, Wednesday, August 4, 1999.

Contact CFAL210 Coordinator Margaret Schmid at 301/283-3324 for additional information, or email liveable210@radix.net. CFAL210 also has a website (www.geocities.com/heartland/forest/1344) that provides updates on activities and background.