Thank you Ladies and gentlemen. As one of the fundamental purposes of the
IMF is "To promote
international monetary cooperation through a permanent institution that
provides the machinery for
consultation and collaboration on international monetary problems," I believe
that it is particularly
appropriate that the Fund should sponsor this conference, with its extremely
wide range of
participants from around the world, on Key Issues in Reform of the International
Monetary and
Financial System. Also, as a manifestation of our increasingly close cooperation
with our sister
Bretton Woods institution, I can't help noting the symbolic appropriateness
of the location of
today's dinner--thank you Jim. My concern tonight is that I cannot pretend,
in my intellectual input,
to match the outstanding--by Washington standards--culinary contribution
you have made to this
occasion!
Let me start with the proposition that the international monetary and financial
system may be seen
as a global public good. It is essentially the same system for everyone.
If it works well, all
countries have the opportunity to benefit; if it works badly, all are likely
to suffer. Hence, all have
an interest in reforms that will improve the system for the global public
benefit. And, as is so
frequently true for public goods, not many people care for, and even fewer
are prepared to pay
for, its improvement even if many comment about it. But let us set aside
such jaundiced comments
and let me touch on three issues that reflect on the international monetary
system as a public good
might suggest.
The first key area where we have important issues concerning international
public goods lies at the
very heart of the international monetary system and of the IMF's responsibilities.
There is no world
money controlled by a world monetary authority which performs the essential
functions of medium
of exchange, store of value, and unit of account at the global level. Rather,
the monies of the
largest industrial countries, most importantly the U.S. dollar, the Euro,
and the Japanese yen do
double duty as the monies for their respective countries and as the monies
used by most other
countries for conducting their international trade and financial transactions.
Inevitably, there is an important public goods aspect to monetary policy
at the national level--there
is only one monetary policy that affects everyone. When non-residents use
a national money, as is
extensively the case for the world's major national monies, national monetary
policies acquire
aspects of global public goods. Exchange rates always, to some extent,
involve issues of
international public goods as an exchange rate is the relative price of
two national monies and is
affected by the corresponding national monetary policies. This international
public goods aspect
rises to global significance for exchange rates among the world's major
currencies as use of these
currencies is global and movements in their exchange rates have widespread
effects.
Quite understandably, the monetary policies of the major currency countries
(including the Euro
area) are directed at domestic economic objectives, which may be broadly
described as
promoting domestic economic and financial stability. Reasonable stability
of the domestic price
level is increasingly recognized as the most basic objective of monetary
policy. Given this
objective, monetary policy also typically seeks to support maximum sustainable
growth and to
promote general stability in financial markets. The behavior of exchange
rates may sometimes
influence the monetary policies of the major currency areas, but usually
only to the extent that
exchange rates affect the more basic objectives of monetary policy.
From the global perspective, this domestic orientation of monetary policies
in the major currency
areas is generally desirable. As experience has unfortunately taught us
on several occasions,
economic and financial instability in the dominant economies of the world
is bad for them and for
the rest of the world as well. Thus economic policies that promote domestic
economic and
financial stability in the largest economic areas of the world are not
only desirable--they are
essential--for economic stability and prosperity elsewhere.
That said, it may still be asked whether it might be desirable for economic
policies in the largest
currency areas to pay somewhat more attention to their international consequences,
particularly in
the area of promoting greater exchange rate stability? My answer, I suspect,
will not entirely
surprise you. I am, after all, the Managing Director of the International
Monetary Fund. I have a
job to do. I try to do it with enthusiasm.
Beyond that, I believe that recent experience suggests--suggests rather
pointedly--that somewhat
more attention can be paid to international consequences and specifically
to exchange rates in the
management of economic policies in the largest economies with beneficial
results for these
economies as well as for the rest of the world. In early 1995, the U.S.
dollar plunged below 80
yen and below 1.35 deutsche marks. This sharp weakening of the dollar tended
to undermine
recovery in the weak Japanese economy and, arguably, was a factor in the
slowing of growth in
Europe. Also, the instability of the dollar/yen exchange rate that began
in early 1995 contributed to
the problems that led up to the Asian crisis.
Consistent with advice given by the IMF, in 1995, official actions did
seek to forestall and reverse
the excessive weakness of the dollar. In the late winter and spring, official
interest rates were cut in
both continental Europe and Japan and were cut further in Japan during
the summer. Coordinated
intervention by Japan and the United States was used to send signals to
the market. These official
actions were, in my judgment, both successful and important in helping
to reverse the dollar's
unwarranted weakness; and they provide an example that shows the potential
usefulness of official
efforts to counteract excessive and unwarranted movements of exchange rates
among the major
currencies.
Last September and October, in the wake of Russia's default and the near
failure of the hedge
fund, LTCM, a liquidity crisis gripped a wide range of financial markets.
The markets most
affected were the second tier markets for lower rated and unrated credits
of both industrial and
developing country issuers. Indeed, yields on the highest rated U.S. Treasury
and German
government bonds fell sharply, while spreads widened dramatically and new
issue activity dried up
for virtually all emerging market issuers. Although adverse effects on
the U.S. economy were not
apparent, recognizing the danger posed by this crisis, the U.S. Federal
Reserve took the lead
among major currency area central banks in easing monetary conditions.
In this instance, forward
looking monetary policy action, in the United States, the Euro area, and
Japan, which took
account of conditions in global financial markets beyond those of immediate
domestic concern,
clearly helped to forestall important risks of a deeper global economic
downturn and,
correspondingly, has helped to create the more favorable prospects for
global growth that we see
today.
We must not, of course, overplay our hand. When domestic considerations
relevant for monetary
policy in the major countries run counter to external considerations, it
will often be a mistake,
domestically and internationally, to give much weight to external considerations.
With respect to
efforts to limit exchange rate instability, it must be recognized that
sometimes substantial
movements of major currency exchange rates are economically appropriate
and can be helpful
from a macroeconomic policy perspective. For example, the relatively strong
U.S. dollar at
present is consistent with the strong cyclical position of the U.S. economy
and is helping to
forestall possible inflationary pressures in the U.S. and is usefully deflecting
some of the rapid
demand growth in the U.S. to countries with large margins of slack.
Moreover, even when exchange rates may seem to have moved too far, it is
not always wise to
adjust macroeconomic policies even marginally to try to affect exchange
rates. For example, when
the yen fell to 145 to the U.S. dollar in mid 1998 many would have thought
that this was a bit too
far, especially in terms of the pressures placed on some Asian emerging
market economies. But, in
view of the economic conditions prevailing in Japan and in the United States
neither a tightening of
Japanese monetary policy nor an easing of U.S. monetary policy appeared
appropriate in any
effort to resist further depreciation of the yen. On the other hand, (sterilized)
official intervention
could have been used more actively and on a coordinated basis to send a
signal that markets were
taking the exchange value of the yen too low.
Concerning intervention, we know from as far back as the Jurgensen report,
that this is not a very
powerful tool for influencing markets, especially when it is not supported
by other policies.
However, markets do not always get exchange rates right. Under the influence
of bandwagon
effects, manias, panics, and other anomalies, markets sometimes take exchange
rates a
considerable distance away from levels consistent with economic fundamentals
in circumstances
where this is detrimental to global economic performance. With due modesty
about our ability to
diagnose such developments and appropriate caution in implementing countervailing
policies, I
believe that the official sector can and should press further to resist
unwarranted movements in
major currency exchange rates. The successes that have been achieved in
the relatively limited
actions undertaken in recent years surely suggest that further efforts,
within reason, would produce
international public goods. Excessive ambition for the success of such
efforts would be a mistake;
but too much timidity is a mistake as well.
A second vital area of IMF responsibilities where international public
goods are at issue is in
assisting countries facing difficulties with their external payments. The
purposes of the Fund's
activities in this area are clearly defined in its Articles of Agreement,
and I like very much the
paragraph of Article 1, that enjoins us: "To give confidence to members
by making the general
resources of the Fund temporarily available to them under adequate safeguards,
thus providing
them with the opportunity to correct maladjustments in their balance of
payments without resorting
to measures destructive of national or international prosperity."
The objective of "giving confidence to members" applies not only to times
of difficulty. More
generally, because open policies toward international trade bring public
goods benefits to the
global economy, it is desirable to persuade members to adopt such policies
by offering some
assurance of assistance in the event that they encounter external payments
difficulties. I would
assert that this argument applies as well to open and prudent policies
toward international capital
movements, and that it is high time for the Fund's Articles to be amended
to reflect this.
The constraint that use of the Fund's general resources should be "temporary,"
subject to
"adequate safeguards" and used to "correct maladjustments" without resorting
to "destructive
measures" reflects the policy of the international community to be prepared
to provide
interest-bearing loans, but not grants, to assist countries that are themselves
acting constructively,
from an international as well as a domestic perspective, to address their
own problems. Thus,
promotion of the global public good, not merely the correction of disequilibrium
in the assisted
country, is the clear purpose of the Fund's financial assistance.
I should add that these constraints on how and when the Fund provides assistance
to its members
show the prescient concern of the framers of the Articles for what is now
referred to as the
problem of "moral hazard" potentially arising from international financial
support. Because the
Fund provides loans with firm expectations of repayment, it is not absorbing
losses that should be
borne by members or their creditors and is thus not contributing directly
to problems of moral
hazard. Furthermore, through the safeguards built into the Fund's conditionality,
members receiving
Fund assistance are pressed to reform their policies not only to correct
current problems but also
to reduce the risk of future payments difficulties. Such reforms, including
particularly the financial
sector reforms that have been central to many recent Fund programs, work
to correct problems of
moral hazard that tend to be generated by national economic policies. With
these reforms, and the
continuing efforts to improve the architecture of the international monetary
system and involve
constructively the private sector in both lessening the risks and ameliorating
the effects of financial
crises, I am convinced that, the problem of moral hazard can be adequately
contained, though of
course it cannot be completely eliminated.
Indeed, with its new facility, the Contingent Credit Line (CCL), the Fund
has a new tool to
promote desirable reforms for countries that are not yet in difficulty
but fear contagion. The
additional incentive for reform comes from limiting access to this, essentially
precautionary, facility
to countries that are judged to already have a sound framework of economic
policies_ a new
approach that provides a reward in advance for good policies, rather than
assistance conditional
on reform when bad things are already happening.
For the Fund's traditional approach of conditional support for members
in difficulty, a good deal of
controversy has recently arisen about the size of financial support packages
and about their
conditionality. Some argue that, to better contain possible moral hazard,
support packages should
have been much smaller and conditionality should have been tougher. Others,
who focus on the
very large costs of recent crises, argue the contrary, for larger support
packages with easier
conditionality. I believe that, if traditional Fund programs are to serve
best their intended function
to promote the global public good by reducing the likelihood of and damage
from external
payments crises, then both adequate financing and firm conditionality are
required. And I am
delighted to affirm that this has been the firmly held line of the Executive
Board all through this
demanding time.
On the scale of some recent support packages, I would emphasize that the
Fund has not been
alone; important additional support has come from the World Bank, the Asian
Development
Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, and bilaterally from national
governments and
central banks. Clearly, in these cases, the responsible judgment of the
international community was
that financial support beyond the substantial amounts provided by the Fund
was necessary and
appropriate. Recent initiatives to increase support, notably that of the
Japanese government for
several Asian countries, confirm this judgment.
On conditionality, initial economic assumptions in several recent programs
proved substantially too
optimistic, and it was appropriate to exploit the flexibility of program
revisions to better adapt
economic policies to unforeseen circumstances_in some cases leading from
a prescribed initial
tightening to a subsequent substantial easing of fiscal policies. For monetary
policies, initial
tightenings were, in my view, not only the right policies, but the absolutely
essential policies to
resist what were already excessive exchange rate depreciations with threatening
domestic and
international implications.
More generally, I believe that it is a grave mistake to think that there
is an easy way out when a
country and its government have lost the confidence of financial markets.
Countries that tried for
an easy way out, that backed away from their programs, have not fared well.
Those that have
pressed vigorously ahead are beginning to see the fruits of their efforts
even earlier than expected.
Going forward, the main worry is not that too rapid reform may impair recovery,
but rather that
recovery may blunt the impetus for reform. To generate the greatest possible
global public good
out of the difficulties of the past two years, it is essential to keep
the reform process moving
forward. I was happy when visiting Asia last week to see that this is a
view firmly held by the
authorities.
A third area where provision of international public goods is an important
concern for IMF
activities may not seem so immediately relevant to the main issues discussed
at this conference.
Nonetheless, I believe it is crucial if the benefits of reform of the international
monetary and
financial system are to be truly global. I refer to efforts by the international
community to assist its
poorest members, which increasingly are becoming marginalized and are not
sharing fully in the
benefits of global economic and financial integration.
This concern is partly symmetric, better integration of the poorest countries
into the international
system will produce public goods benefits for other countries through increased
trade and
expanded opportunities for investment. However, the public goods issue
is broader than the
potential for symmetric benefits. At the national level, we all recognize
the public responsibility to
assist the less fortunate to become more productive members of our societies.
A similar ethic
applied at the global level suggests that the public good requires meaningful
efforts to reduce
disparities of income, resources, and opportunities that are substantially
greater than typically exist
within our national societies. In the face of widening divergences between
the richest and the
poorest countries, and with generally declining amounts of assistance forthcoming
from the richer
countries, it seems clear that more needs to be done to redeem this aspect
of the international
public good.
At the IMF, we are working on several fronts, in cooperation with others.
This includes the
provision of policy advice through our deepening process of surveillance,
an extensive program of
technical assistance and training to help develop skills in our areas of
expertise, and concessional
financial assistance to eligible members through ESAF. In addition a variety
of proposals have
been made to strengthen the HIPC Initiative for providing debt relief to
the worlds poorest and
relatively most heavily indebted countries. We are working closely with
the World Bank to refine a
set of principles that would provide a basis for moving forward with this
initiative. Next months
G-7 summit in Cologne will mark an important step in this process.
However, policy advice, technical assistance, new concessional financing,
and debt relief, although
crucial, will not alone provide many of these countries with the ability
to grow their way out of
poverty. In addition our policies on aid and debt relief need to be better
coordinated with and
supported by policies on trade and investment. Ample evidence from the
experience of countries
that have successfully moved up the development ladder demonstrates the
importance of trade
linkages and of direct investment flows in fostering sustainable economic
growth. It is for this
reason that I have argued for across-the-board, duty free access to advanced
country markets for
the least developed countries as a way of promoting growth and reducing
poverty in these
countries. Elimination of misguided protectionist policies that also impair
growth in the poorest
countries should also be undertaken, although not as a prerequisite for
action by the advanced
countries.
An increasingly open system of world trade, and an increasingly and prudently
liberalized system
of world finance are the two great global public goods that have been produced
by the
international community in the postwar era. The effort to reform the system
is fundamentally the
effort to sustain and enhance these public goods.