Malaysia surprised many, particularly the International Monetary Fund,
by imposing
selective capital controls a year ago. But with its success, the IMF may
be convinced to push
neighbouring countries to follow a similar path in insulating their economies,
consumerist Martin
Khor said.
If capital controls prove successful in the long run, then Malaysia would
be free to further expand
its fiscal policy by way of an expansionary budget with lower interest
rates without fear of any
change in the exchange rates, he added.
Malaysia pegged its ringgit at RM3.80 to the dollar, as part of the selective
exchange controls
imposed more than a year ago, to protect itself from the destructive short-term
capital flows.
Khor, who is the director of the Third World Network, when unveiling the
United Nations
Conference on Trade and Development's (Unctad) Trade and Development Report
1999, said it
however, did not discuss in detail Malaysia's capital controls.
"However, I think Malaysia's selective exchange controls is a unique one."
On the timing of pegging the ringgit, he said, he was aware that few people
including Paul
Krugman who was here recently, mentioned that Malaysia had been a little
late.
"But for me, it is better to be late than never."
Soon after the introduction of the selective exchange controls, he said,
there had been great
improvement in the Malaysian economy and this appeared to spill over to
other economies.
However, he cautioned that instability has not paired off, which means
economic recovery was
still in a fragile state.
"For example, we can still see high volatility in the movements of the
yen. A year ago this
currency was weaker at around 150 to a dollar, but now just in a year,
it has become stronger at
around 100 again," he said, adding that with the currency peg, Malaysia
had been somewhat less
affected by this external trend.
Khor said that in view of the uncertainty of the US economy, the possibility
of another round of
instability must not be overruled.